COP22

World Climate Simulation

This blog is inspired by the World climate simulation, that we did last week as part of this module. For those that are not part of this module, or were not there, we had to act as a negotiator at the United Nations Climate Change negotiations. In the 3 hours, teams from each region had to negotiate to try and get temperatures down to 1.5℃. I think we managed to get it down to 2.1℃ . It proved how challenging it can be to reach an agreement with between different regions, that have different motivations. It also showed how complicated the politics is, and how tensions can rise very quickly.

The exercise is framed by current climate change science, using the interactive C-ROADS computer simulation which allows participants to find out how their proposed policies impact the global climate system in real- time. We went into this having very limited knowledge on COP (Conference of the parties of the united Nations agreement on climate change), and how it worked. however, by the end of the sessions, we left with more knowledge and understanding.

Below is a video of how the simulation works. I would definitely encourage students (not only geography), schools, lecturers, businesses, leaders, everyone to get involved.

Mock Video climate simulation

So what does this have to do with Extreme weather and climate change?

COP22 was held in Marrakesh 7-18th November 2016.

During COP22 a new report 'unbreakable: Building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters' was released by the World bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and recovery (GFDRR). It warns that natural disasters are a greater impediment to ending global poverty than previously understood, and underscores the urgency for climate- smart policies that better protect the world's most vulnerable.

The study of 117 countries, revealed how natural disasters which are being exacerbated by the effects of climate change, and are disproportionately impacting the worlds poorest regions. Extreme weather forces nearly 26 million individuals into poverty each year, which is 60% higher than all other estimates.

Stephanie Hallegate, an economist who led preparation of the report said in a statement:

"Countries are enduring a growing number of expected shocks as a result of climate change. Poor people need social and financial protection from disasters that cannot be avoided. With risk policies in place that we know to be effective, we have the opportunity to prevent millions of people from falling into poverty."

The latest Global Climate Risk index was also unveiled at COP22. It finds four of the world's top ten countries worst hit by extreme climate events last year were in Africa.

Table 1: The climate risk index for 2015: the 10 most affected countries

Source:http://germanwatch.org/de/download/16411.pdf

Heavy rainfalls due to the intensified monsoon in Southern Eastern Africa which started in December 2014 and continued throughout January and beyond, had disastrous consequences for infrastructure, agriculture and food security. As shown in the table Mozambique (1st), Malawi (3rd) and Madagascar (8th) were the hardest hit countries by the floods resulting from the torrential rainfalls.

Africa is home to some of the most poorest regions, and is also one of the most affected by extreme weather and climate change. Climate change is increasing the variation of rainfall in many regions, seeing long droughts, followed by extreme precipitation events. To find out more about this see my blog on Water and Environmental change in Africa, which looks at the changing distribution of rainfall, and the impacts this has on access to water.

Action therefore needs to be taken to protect the lives that are most affected by climate change:

"Adaptation finance is not just an abstract numbers game. It's about providing women famers in Africa with seeds to plant drought- resistant crops and foe their families; its about building seawalls so millions who lived in coastal areas survive rising sea levels."

Adaptation is key to the survival and development of Africa, other developing nations and the rest of the world. $100bn per year was promised by developed counties to help the most vulnerable countries adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change. However, at COP22, developed and developing countries disagreed over the distribution of funding between mitigation and adaptation efforts. A roadmap drawn up by developed countries and presented at Marrakesh allocated just 20% of climate finance to efforts to limit the damage caused by climate change. The remaining 80% of this money would be spent on mitigation. In other words, cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

However, I believe that this is an unfair distribution, as the need for adaptation is not necessarily more important than mitigation, but it is particularly important in developing countries, which are the hardest hit by climate hazards such as droughts and floods.