Climate change down under

Lightening in Sydney 8/12/16

Source: https://www.instagram.com/p/BNwV5JSDqj2/

Most of Australia can expect a hotter than average December, with temperatures being forced up by both regional climate patterns and a global upward trend. Drier- than- average conditions in December, with a 70-80% change of below- average rainfall is expected across most of the eastern part of the country.

The higher than usual pressures were due to a climate force known as the Southern Annualar Mode, which is associated with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures (Lim, 2016). It was forcing wind systems further north than normal, holding monsoon weather at bay while moving air far across the continent.

Forest fires

Australian Summers and forest fires seem to go hand in hand. 

Warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall, has resulted in severe fire danger for parts of Australia. This winter has been the second- wettest on record, this encouraged grass growth, which prompts concerns about fast- running grass fires. 

Cyclone season

Cyclone season is not set to begin until January. Last season there was only 3 cyclones, due to an exceptionally long El Nino which is a record low. This season is expected to be above- average- 11 cyclones has been forecasted. However, there are worries:

"We don't want people to be complacent because not much happened last year... it wasnt typical by any means."

Thunderstorms

Severe thunderstorms are projected to be more common in east Australia, up to 30% in some parts. However, unlike heat and rainfall projections, links between climate change and thunderstorms in Australia are far lessunderstood.

Thunderstorms can be dangerous due to accompanying winds, lightning and flash flood, as well as their potential to rupture pollen into tiny particles that can be inhaled into the lungs. Eight people in Australia last week sadly lost their lives due to "thunderstorm asthma".

Is this climate change?

Australia has warmed 0.9℃ since 1910 and can be expected to warm a further 0.6 ℃ to 5.1℃ by 2090, depending on GHG reductions.

"Australian climate patterns were being influenced by the long- term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures" (Nom, 2016). Although it is difficult to differentiate between the impact of climate change, compared with local patterns and drivers, climate change is definitely playing a role in their weather and climate.

Concluding thoughts

All weather events should be considered in the context of climate change. Heatwaves and reduced rainfall pose the greatest threat to Australian health and livelihoods. Thunderstorm Asthma is not the only health risk associated with climate change.  Here is an article on other associated health risks in Australia.

Predicting health risks is a lot harder than extreme weather, therefore effective management needs to be put in place. Early warning systems, vulnerability mapping, and public health education, are just some of the ways to do this.