As the title says, this is my final blog post, for this module. This has probably been one of the most challenging university projects in being consistent at producing weekly blog posts for two different modules. However, it has been one of the most interesting and engaging projects I have completed to date.
Some of the key take home messages are that Climate change is increasing the extremity of weather. However, this should not be seen as a future threat, this is happening now, and has been for a while. Extreme weather is not new and figure 1 clearly shows this.
Climate change is not only changing the frequency of these events, but also seasonality, intensity and duration. Although there is not always the evidence to suggest that Climate Change is causing these changes in weather, and is often hard to differentiate from natural variabilities. I believe that all extreme weather events should be considered in the context of climate change
Vulnerability to these changes is what is important. We must focus on adaptation, mitigation and effective management strategies in to reduce the risk of these events, especially for those in extreme poverty.
Most of Australia can expect a hotter than average December, with temperatures being forced up by both regional climate patterns and a global upward trend. Drier- than- average conditions in December, with a 70-80% change of below- average rainfall is expected across most of the eastern part of the country. The higher than usual pressures were due to a climate force known as the Southern Annualar Mode, which is associated with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures (Lim, 2016). It was forcing wind systems further north than normal, holding monsoon weather at bay while moving air far across the continent.
Forest fires
Australian Summers and forest fires seem to go hand in hand. Warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall, has resulted in severe fire danger for parts of Australia. This winter has been the second- wettest on record, this encouraged grass growth, which prompts concerns about fast- running grass fires.
Cyclone season
Cyclone season is not set to begin until January. Last season there was only 3 cyclones, due to an exceptionally long El Nino which is a record low. This season is expected to be above- average- 11 cyclones has been forecasted. However, there are worries:
"We don't want people to be complacent because not much happened last year... it wasnt typical by any means."
Thunderstorms
Severe thunderstorms are projected to be more common in east Australia, up to 30% in some parts. However, unlike heat and rainfall projections, links between climate change and thunderstorms in Australia are far lessunderstood.
Thunderstorms can be dangerous due to accompanying winds, lightning and flash flood, as well as their potential to rupture pollen into tiny particles that can be inhaled into the lungs. Eight people in Australia last week sadly lost their lives due to "thunderstorm asthma".
Is this climate change?
Australia has warmed 0.9℃ since 1910 and can be expected to warm a further 0.6 ℃ to 5.1℃ by 2090, depending on GHG reductions. "Australian climate patterns were being influenced by the long- term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures" (Nom, 2016). Although it is difficult to differentiate between the impact of climate change, compared with local patterns and drivers, climate change is definitely playing a role in their weather and climate.
Concluding thoughts
All weather events should be considered in the context of climate change. Heatwaves and reduced rainfall pose the greatest threat to Australian health and livelihoods. Thunderstorm Asthma is not the only health risk associated with climate change. Here is an article on other associated health risks in Australia.
Predicting health risks is a lot harder than extreme weather, therefore effective management needs to be put in place. Early warning systems, vulnerability mapping, and public health education, are just some of the ways to do this.
This blog is inspired by the World climate simulation, that we did last week as part of this module. For those that are not part of this module, or were not there, we had to act as a negotiator at the United Nations Climate Change negotiations. In the 3 hours, teams from each region had to negotiate to try and get temperatures down to 1.5℃. I think we managed to get it down to 2.1℃ . It proved how challenging it can be to reach an agreement with between different regions, that have different motivations. It also showed how complicated the politics is, and how tensions can rise very quickly.
The exercise is framed by current climate change science, using the interactive C-ROADS computer simulation which allows participants to find out how their proposed policies impact the global climate system in real- time. We went into this having very limited knowledge on COP (Conference of the parties of the united Nations agreement on climate change), and how it worked. however, by the end of the sessions, we left with more knowledge and understanding.
Below is a video of how the simulation works. I would definitely encourage students (not only geography), schools, lecturers, businesses, leaders, everyone to get involved.
Mock Video climate simulation
So what does this have to do with Extreme weather and climate change?
COP22 was held in Marrakesh 7-18th November 2016.
During COP22 a new report 'unbreakable: Building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters' was released by the World bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and recovery (GFDRR). It warns that natural disasters are a greater impediment to ending global poverty than previously understood, and underscores the urgency for climate- smart policies that better protect the world's most vulnerable.
The study of 117 countries, revealed how natural disasters which are being exacerbated by the effects of climate change, and are disproportionately impacting the worlds poorest regions. Extreme weather forces nearly 26 million individuals into poverty each year, which is 60% higher than all other estimates.
Stephanie Hallegate, an economist who led preparation of the report said in a statement:
"Countries are enduring a growing number of expected shocks as a result of climate change. Poor people need social and financial protection from disasters that cannot be avoided. With risk policies in place that we know to be effective, we have the opportunity to prevent millions of people from falling into poverty."
The latest Global Climate Risk index was also unveiled at COP22. It finds four of the world's top ten countries worst hit by extreme climate events last year were in Africa.
Table 1: The climate risk index for 2015: the 10 most affected countries
Heavy rainfalls due to the intensified monsoon in Southern Eastern Africa which started in December 2014 and continued throughout January and beyond, had disastrous consequences for infrastructure, agriculture and food security. As shown in the table Mozambique (1st), Malawi (3rd) and Madagascar (8th) were the hardest hit countries by the floods resulting from the torrential rainfalls.
Africa is home to some of the most poorest regions, and is also one of the most affected by extreme weather and climate change. Climate change is increasing the variation of rainfall in many regions, seeing long droughts, followed by extreme precipitation events. To find out more about this see my blog on Water and Environmental change in Africa, which looks at the changing distribution of rainfall, and the impacts this has on access to water.
Action therefore needs to be taken to protect the lives that are most affected by climate change:
"Adaptation finance is not just an abstract numbers game. It's about providing women famers in Africa with seeds to plant drought- resistant crops and foe their families; its about building seawalls so millions who lived in coastal areas survive rising sea levels."
Adaptation is key to the survival and development of Africa, other developing nations and the rest of the world. $100bn per year was promised by developed counties to help the most vulnerable countries adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change. However, at COP22, developed and developing countries disagreed over the distribution of funding between mitigation and adaptation efforts. A roadmap drawn up by developed countries and presented at Marrakesh allocated just 20% of climate finance to efforts to limit the damage caused by climate change. The remaining 80% of this money would be spent on mitigation. In other words, cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
However, I believe that this is an unfair distribution, as the need for adaptation is not necessarily more important than mitigation, but it is particularly important in developing countries, which are the hardest hit by climate hazards such as droughts and floods.
